WTI 93.70BRENT 96.10DXY 103.2CRACK 27.8VOL 0.26RISK ELEVATEDSIGNAL BULLISHCONF 0.67WTI 93.70BRENT 96.10DXY 103.2CRACK 27.8VOL 0.26RISK ELEVATEDSIGNAL BULLISHCONF 0.67
Live Pulse

Gulf Signal Wave

Streaming tick overlay driven by the demo series.

Delta

+0.00

last tick

Latency

188ms

compute

Streaming logic

while market_open:
  features = build_features(ticks)
  forecast = model.predict(features)
  adjust_curve(forecast, delta=0.00)
  publish_signal(forecast)

Terminal feed

Compute Console

live
> boot: pipeline ready
> ingest: 12 series loaded
> compute: volatility kernel warm
> signal: bias=+0.62
> waiting for next tick_

Live code

async function tickFeed() {
  const ticks = await stream.read()
  const features = buildFeatures(ticks)
  const forecast = model.predict(features)
  return publish(forecast)
}
Impact: chart updates every 1.4s • signal drift aligned to log output
Active graph reacts to terminal delta + latency jitter

Spot + forecast

Market Path

Intraday posture

Tide Signals

Curve

Backwardation

Tight prompt

Skew

Call-heavy

Options

Spot + macro

Live Watchlist

WTI Spot

93.70

+0.60% • Momentum up

Brent

96.10

+0.40% • Tight supply

DXY

103.20

-0.20% • USD softer

Crack Spread

27.80

+1.10% • Refining bid

Jet Fuel

2.86

+0.30% • Demand firm

Forward risks

Scenario Deck

22% probability

Logistics shock

Impact: +7.5% spot

18% probability

Refinery outage

Impact: +4.0% crack spread

25% probability

Demand fade

Impact: -5.2% spot

35% probability

Inventory draw

Impact: +3.1% spot

Notable names

Shipping + Energy Equities

HAL+1.40%

Halliburton

Oilfield Services

$38.60

SLB+0.90%

SLB

Oilfield Services

$52.30

XOM+0.60%

Exxon Mobil

Integrated Energy

$116.20

CVX+0.40%

Chevron

Integrated Energy

$158.70

VLO+1.10%

Valero

Refining

$159.90

MPC+0.80%

Marathon Petroleum

Refining

$171.40

ZIM-0.70%

ZIM Integrated

Shipping

$12.90

SFL+0.50%

SFL Corp

Shipping

$13.80

Model output

Forecast Stack

30D target

Equity Basket

XLE97.10

Conf 0.62

XOP147.80

Conf 0.58

VLO166.40

Conf 0.55

CVX162.10

Conf 0.61

OXY60.20

Conf 0.57

Rolling 30D

Volatility

Trend

Momentum

Risk posture

Regime

Percentile

68th

vol rank

Stress

Elevated

hedging

Drawdown

-8.0%

90D

Impact feed

News Pulse

Gulf Coast maintenance cuts crude exports

Energy WireLogisticsImpact HighConf 0.72

OPEC signals disciplined supply into Q3

Market BriefPolicyImpact MediumConf 0.64

US rigs flatten as capex budgets tighten

Field NotesSupplyImpact MediumConf 0.59

Refined product demand firming in Asia

Macro DeskDemandImpact LowConf 0.54

Topic strength

Drivers

Supply disruptions0.64
Shipping constraints0.58
Inventory draw0.52
Demand softness0.41

Demo narrative feed

Real-World Impact

Red Sea disruption reroutes tankers, lifting freight rates

2 hours ago

Global Shipping Monitor

Longer transit times reduce near-term availability, widening prompt spreads.

Signal: Prompt tightnessImpact: +1.2% spot

OPEC+ extends output discipline into Q3

6 hours ago

Energy Policy Desk

Forward balances tighten, reinforcing bullish model bias and higher confidence.

Signal: Supply clampImpact: +0.8% curve

US shale capex plans flatten after earnings

12 hours ago

Field Intelligence

Slower rig additions imply tighter 2H supply and sustained backwardation.

Signal: Lower growthImpact: +0.6% forecast

Asian product demand rebounds ahead of travel season

1 day ago

Macro Desk

Refining margins improve, supporting higher crude runs and spot demand.

Signal: Demand surgeImpact: +0.5% crack

How headlines move price

Translation Layer

Shipping bottlenecks push prompt spreads wider.

Effect: Higher curve backwardation + elevated risk premium.

Rig declines compress forward supply expectations.

Effect: Forecast bias shifts to upside with higher confidence.

Inventory draws reinforce signal strength.

Effect: Momentum regime remains positive despite volatility.

Latency + error

Model Leaderboard

ARIMA210ms

MAE 2.30 • RMSE 3.10 • MAPE 4.1

Prophet240ms

MAE 2.10 • RMSE 2.90 • MAPE 3.8

XGBoost310ms

MAE 1.90 • RMSE 2.70 • MAPE 3.4

LSTM410ms

MAE 2.00 • RMSE 2.80 • MAPE 3.6

Production mix

Supply Concentration

Live ML orchestration

Model Core

Regime

Backwardation

Prompt spreads widening

Risk

Elevated

Vol surface steep

Bias

Bullish

Signal stack aligned

Confidence

0.67

Ensemble vote

IngestFRED + OWID + AIS + headlines120ms
Featuresterm structure, vol regime, spreads180ms
ModelsARIMA, XGBoost, LSTM ensemble410ms
Riskstress score, drawdown, skew95ms
Publishsignal, forecast, narrative70ms

Pipeline logic

Live Compute

Model Orchestrator

def run_ensemble(X, y):
    preds = []
    preds.append(arima_forecast(X))
    preds.append(xgb_predict(X))
    preds.append(lstm_predict(X))
    return np.average(preds, axis=0, weights=[0.2, 0.5, 0.3])

Signal Engine

signal = (trend_score * 0.4) + (risk_score * 0.35) + (news_score * 0.25)
confidence = sigmoid(2.4 * signal - 0.8)

Forecast Gate

if vol_regime == 'high':
    forecast = dampen(forecast, factor=0.85)
    bands = widen(bands, pct=0.12)

Research drops

Report Archive

Monthly

March 2026 Energy Outlook

18 pages • 2026-03-27

Special

Volatility Shock Review

14 pages • 2026-03-12

Macro

Macro Cross-Asset Lens

22 pages • 2026-02-28

Coverage

Datasets

WTI Spot

FRED

Rows 9.4kQuality 98%

OWID Energy

OWID

Rows 218kQuality 95%

Global Refinery

IEA

Rows 41kQuality 92%

Shipping Lanes

AIS

Rows 1.2MQuality 89%

Signal pipeline

Method Stack

Signals

Momentum + drawdown regimes

Risk

Volatility percentile + stress

Forecast

Best-fit model by MAE/RMSE